Past Election Numbers Of Major Political Parties In Nigeria Tell Interesting Stories.
Democracy more than any other political system on the planet and throughout history hinges on a simple premise which is that legitimacy and power for any political leadership is granted solely by ‘the people’ who grant such legitimacy and power through their legal right to vote. In that regard, it is evident to infer that democracy is a ‘game of numbers’ and that in any democracy ‘the votes’ are the ‘currency of the day’, as one is able to understand and gather the support of the people which transcends to votes from the people majority, is the key to winning and maintaining one's legitimacy and power. Such premise is not lost on a gradually improving representative democracy such as that of Nigeria and is highlighted in the content of this article which is an extract from THE 2011&2015 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DESCRIPTIVE ANALYTICS REPORT developed by Franelta&Basbra Data Limited, which aims to enlighten the reader about the nature of the electoral landscape in Nigeria and why an understanding of the electoral numbers and patterns matter.
The Nigerian electoral landscape in the report encompasses the following which is first the nature of the electorate, second the criteria for which they vote, and third the patterns in which they vote. The nature of the Nigerian electorate is a wide mix of a multi-ethnic and multi-religious population, who are categorized into political entities which are 6 geopolitical zones, 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory, and 774 local government areas (LGAs). Such electorate makes voting decisions based on various voting criteria which can be grouped into the Identity, Issues, Institutions, and Personality voting criteria and a combination of the nature of the electorate and their voting criteria provides voting patterns that evolve or stay the same over different election cycles.
One important Institutions criteria that are taken into consideration by the electorate are the political parties and their candidates who are in the constant canvasing mode for the votes of the electorate during election seasons. Given the diverse nature of the Nigerian electorate political parties usually have to cast a wide tent to accommodate the multiplicity of interest of the electorate and in terms of winning the presidency, such political tent has to be wider for such political parties to be successful. In recent electoral times, the Nigerian political infrastructure has gradually developed into a strong two-party system, between the All Progressives Congress (APC) formed in 2013 and the dominant People’s Democratic Party (PDP) formed in 1998, right before the dawn of the fourth republic and return to civilian rule in Nigeria. These parties both have the widest tent in the country and have been the most successful in elections since the return to democracy in 1999.
The content of the report is focused heavily on the quantitative viewpoint of the electorate, and as such provides voting data, patterns, and graphic elaborations for the two major political parties in Nigeria over the last two election cycles of 2011 and 2015 respectively. While the APC didn’t exist as a single party in 2011, a simulation was performed in this report with the voting data of the three major opposition parties which contested separately in the 2011 elections, and as a unified APC in the 2015 elections, those parties being the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) respectively.
Detailed in the full analytics report are various insights such as geopolitical zone profiles, voting pattern criteria, voting data points, voting pattern diagrams, and graphic elaborations of the electorate of Nigeria, with the heavy focus being placed on the number of registered voters over the last two election cycles, voter turnout, total votes cast and the vote share for each of the two parties noted above. These data points, patterns, and elaboration help provide insights to each party’s strongholds both from a geopolitical zone and a state-by-state perspective, as well as each party’s presence in swing zones and states, who made different choices over the course of both election cycles. Strongholds zones and states are classified in this report as zones and states where a party gathered a minimum vote share of approximately 50% of the two election cycles and swing zones and states are classified as zones and states which flipped from one party to another, over the course of the last two election cycles.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
These are some insights gained along with the country, geopolitical zones, and state lines;
COUNTRY-WIDE
1. The number of registered voters dropped by 8.3% from 73,528,040 voters in 2011 to 67,422,007 voters in 2015.
2. Voter turnout dropped from 52.0% in 2011 to 43.7% in 2015, with an average of 47.8% over both election cycles.
3. The total votes cast dropped by 23.0% from 38,209,978 votes in 2011 to 29,432,083 votes in 2015.
4. The APC won 13 states in the 2011 elections (ACN: 1, CPC:12) and improved its win tally in 2015 to 21 states. The PDP won 24 (23+FCT) states in 2011 and was only able to win 16 (15+FCT) states in 2015.
5. The APC vote share of total votes cast increased from 39.3% in 2011 to 52.4% in 2015, while the vote share for the PDP dropped from 58.9% in 2011 to 43.7%.
NORTH-WEST (NW)
1. The North-West is ranked 1st on average in terms of the number of registered voters, 1st in terms of total votes cast, and 2nd in terms of voter turnout among the 6 geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 11.3% from 19,803,689 in 2011 to 17,570,066 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in the North-West dropped from 54.5% in 2011 to 49.8% in 2015, with an average of 52.2% over both election cycles.
4. The total number of votes cast in the North-West dropped by 19.0% from 10,800,076 in 2011 to 8,747,921 in 2015.
5. All 7 states in the North-West were won by the APC in both 2011 (i.e. CPC:7 states won) and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 66.8% in 2011 to 81.3% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 31.4% in 2011 to 15.3% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-West can be considered an APC stronghold geopolitical zone.
NORTH-EAST (NE)
1. The North-East is ranked 4th on average in terms of the number of registered voters, 4th in terms of total votes cast, and 4th in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 16.9% from 10,749,059 in 2011 to 8,933,630 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in the North-East dropped from 54.2% in 2011 to 42.4% in 2015, with an average of 48.3% over both election cycles.
4. The total number of votes cast in the North-East dropped by 35.1% from 5,826,444 in 2011 to 3,783,920 in 2015.
5. Of the 6 states in the North-East, 4 states were won by the APC in 2011 (i.e. CPC:4 states won) and 5 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 2 states were won in 2011 and only 1 state was won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 67.1% in 2011 to 75.3% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 31.5% in 2011 to 21.1% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-East can be considered an APC stronghold geopolitical zone.
NORTH-CENTRAL (NC)
1. The North-Central is ranked 3rd on average in terms of the number of registered voters, 3rd in terms of total votes cast, and 5th in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 9.6% from 11,627,490 in 2011 to 10,507,028 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in the North-Central dropped from 47.7% in 2011 to 40.8% in 2015, with an average of 44.2% over both election cycles.
4. The total number of votes cast in the North-Central dropped by 22.7% from 5,546,159 in 2011 to 4,286,850 in 2015.
5. Of the 7 states in the North-Central, 1 state was won by the APC in 2011 (i.e. CPC:1 states won) and 3 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 6 states were won in 2011 and 4 states were won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 37.8% in 2011 to 56.2% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 60.9% in 2011 to 40.0% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-Central can be considered a swing geopolitical zone for both the APC and PDP.
SOUTH-WEST (SW)
1. The South-West is ranked 2nd on average in terms of the number of registered voters, 5th in terms of total votes cast, and 6th in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 5.7% from 14,296,163 in 2011 to 13,484,620 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in the South-West increased from 32.3% in 2011 to 33.7% in 2015, with an average of 33.0% over both election cycles.
4. The total number of votes cast in the South-West dropped by 1.6% from 4,613,712 in 2011 to 4,539,447 in 2015.
5. Of the 6 states in the South-West, 1 state was won by the APC in 2011 (i.e. ACN:1 states won) and 5 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 5 states were won in 2011 and only 1 state was won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 37.3% in 2011 to 53.6% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 60.4% in 2011 to 40.1% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-West can be considered a swing geopolitical zone for both the APC and PDP.
SOUTH-EAST (SE)
1. The South-East is ranked 6th on average in terms of the number of registered voters, 6th in terms of total votes cast, and 3rd in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 0.8% from 7,577,212 in 2011 to 7,513,033 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in the South-East dropped from 67.0% in 2011 to 37.5% in 2015, with an average of 52.2% over both election cycles.
4. The total number of votes cast in the South-East dropped by 44.5% from 5,073,321 in 2011 to 2,815,348 in 2015.
5. All 5 states in the South-East were won by the PDP in both 2011 and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 1.3% in 2011 to 7.0% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 98.3% in 2011 to 87.6% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-East can be considered a PDP stronghold geopolitical zone.
SOUTH-SOUTH (SS)
1. The South-South is ranked 5th on average in terms of the number of registered voters, 2nd in terms of total votes cast, and 1st in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 0.6% from 9,474,427 in 2011 to 9,413,630 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-South dropped from 67.0% in 2011 to 55.9% in 2015, with an average of 61.4% over both election cycles.
4. The total number of votes cast in the South-South dropped by 17.2% from 6,350,266 in 2011 to 5,258,597 in 2015.
5. All 6 states in the South-South were won by the PDP in both 2011 and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 3.2% in 2011 to 8.0% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 96.4% in 2011 to 89.7% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-South can be considered a PDP stronghold geopolitical zone.
STATES
1. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of the number of registered voters in Lagos (SW) and the state ranked 37th is Bayelsa (SS).
2. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of voter turnout is Bayelsa (SS) and the state ranked 37th is Lagos (SW).
3. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of total votes cast is Kano (NW) and the state ranked 37th is Ekiti (SW).
4. The top-ranked states on average in terms of the number of registered voters are Lagos (SW), Kano (NW), Kaduna (NW), Kastina (NW), and Oyo (SW) respectively.
5. The bottom-ranked states on average in terms of the number of registered voters are Cross River (SS), Ebonyi (SE), FCT (NC), Ekiti (SW), and Bayelsa (SS) respectively.
6. The top-ranked states on average in terms of voter turnout are Bayelsa (SS), Rivers (SS), Akwa Ibom (SS), Delta (SS), and Imo (SE) respectively.
7. The bottom-ranked states on average in terms of voter turnout are Oyo (SW), Edo (SS), Ondo (SW), Ogun (SW), and Lagos (SW) respectively.
8. The top-ranked states on average in terms of total votes cast are Kano (NW), Kaduna (NW), Rivers (SS), Lagos (SW), and Kastina (NW) respectively.
9. The bottom-ranked states on average in terms of total votes cast are Kwara (NC), Ebonyi (SE), Bayelsa (SS), FCT (NC), and Ekiti (SW) respectively.
10. Despite Lagos State being ranked 1st in terms of the number of registered voters, and 4th in terms of total votes cast, at an average voter turnout of 28.8% over both election cycles, Lagos ranks 37th out of 37 states (36 states +FCT) in terms of voter turnout. Such dismal turnout highlights a huge underutilization of votes registered in the richest voting state in the country.
Download the full report here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_5BYkhaWvoM7uHZxl9qyGf12mp1p1CQy/view
